Total global spirits volumes are expected to reach 2.8 billion nine-litre cases by 2023, according to the latest forecasts from Vinexpo and IWSR Drinks Market Analysis.
Premium and super-premium spirits will be a “major factor” in the sector’s growth.
While overall spirits volumes will continue to be led by local products, imported and global brands will steal market share from locally made spirits, growing 9% by 2023.
Local whiskies from India, Burma, Angola, Kenya and Nigeria have also been tipped to lead the global growth of spirits, with forecasters predicting whiskies of all varieties – including Scotch – will grow by 7.9% by 2023.
Gin, rum and agave-based spirits, including Tequila and mezcal, are also expected to grow during this period.
Standard and premium expressions are expected to drive the growth of Scotch whisky at a CAGR of 1.5%, with volumes forecast to hit 94.3bn cases by 2023.
However, three of Scotch whisky’s leading markets – France, the UK and the US – are expected to contract. Increasing volumes in India, Latin America and Russia will offset this.
Furthermore, gin’s success looks set to continue with a CAGR of more than 4% from 2018 to 2023 to reach total worldwide volumes of 86.16bn cases, led by the UK and the Philippines.
Rodolphe Lemeyse, Vinexpo CEO, said during a media briefing in London: “What we can see is as usual, spirits are mainly being driven by local brands.
“But the share of imported spirits is increasing year after year. That’s quite significant. Big brands are playing an important role in this increase.”
Standard and premium spirits, omitting value-and-below local brands, are expected to grow by 3.5% and 2.6% respectively in the Asia Pacific region between 2020 and 2023. Premium-and-above spirits are predicted to grow by almost 6% during the same period.
In this time frame, consumption of imported spirits in Asia Pacific is forecast to reach 56.6 million nine-litre cases.
Whisky, including Scotch and other whiskies, is expected to maintain annual growth of 8%.
Within the whisky category, Scotch will lead by volume, accounting for more than a third of imported products.
India will be one to watch when it comes to Scotch whisky, with consumption of Scotland’s native spirit expected to grow by around 10% over the next three years.
The Philippines and Australia will pave the way for gin’s growth in Asia Pacific, though India is expected to be the only market where the category will struggle and consumption could drop by 5%.
However, gin could grow by more than 12% in Australia and 12% in China.
Source: thespiritsbusiness.com by Melita Kiely